> Lenovo has begun notifying clients of coming price hikes, with adjustments set to take effect in early 2026.. Dell is expected to raise prices by at least 15-20%, with the increase potentially taking effect as soon as mid-December.. Dell COO Jeff Clarke warned that he’s “never seen memory-chip costs rise this fast,” .. Lenovo [cited] two key factors: an intensifying memory shortage and the rapid integration of AI technologies.. TrendForce has downgraded its 2026 notebook shipment forecast from an initial 1.7% YoY growth to a 2.4% YoY decline.
> The full-year price increase for Samsung’s storage products supplied to Apple in 2026 has been finalized, with DRAM prices rising by 53% and NAND prices rising by 52%. Earlier rumors suggesting an 80% full-year increase for DRAM were inaccurate.. Apple negotiated the prices down to the aforementioned levels and signed long-term agreements (LTAs).. Kioxia also signed a similar agreement with Apple, with price increases consistent with Samsung’s.
The margins on memory for Apple were so absurd that they should have more ability to eat up the costs, if they wanted to. I'm assuming they would, to the extent that they're a device company more so than a service company yet.
I don't think Apple ever adjusts existing products prices anyway, for better (eating the cost of part shortages) or worse (taking more profit when parts get cheaper). The price is locked in on release day.
The real test will be what they do with upcoming products.
In my opinion we are witnessing the market influences of a new type of public-private "Phoebus cartel" except at a total global scale where anti-terrorism laws require pricing businesses and individuals out of owning their own compute forcing them to rent compute from multinational hyperscaler cloud businesses who are integrated with military intelligence operations. Computing technology after all is a weapon of mass destruction and the peaceful are being punished for the non peaceful. It is too dangerous for governments around the world to allow individuals to posses the immense power of computing technology. Call me chicken little but we are witnessing the end of publicly available private general computing. Market changes influencing cost effectiveness analysis to favor public cloud is a deliberate goal to secure national critical infrastructure. I also think this coincides with the limits of MOSFET scaling and RISC-V permissive licensing. My only credentials for this is 15+ years working in fintech I&O for a US Fortune 500 company.
A year ago, Framework-branded memory for DIY laptops cost, IIRC, 2x Amazon for equivalent specs (not the same modules—the ADATA ones that Framework puts their stickers on are theoretically available retail but in practice complete unobtanium in most countries). Not Apple pricing, but they definitely have some margin to eat into.
I feel like I got the last chopper out of 'nam buying my G.Skill 256GB 6000MT/s kit when I did. I paid $780 in July and now it's listed at.. $2700, over 300% higher. That and buying a bunch of sticks for some Tyan boards I got on a whim last year with some engineering samples I got working on them.
Literally bought 96GB (4x24GB) of DDR5 5600Mhz (edit: RDIMM ECC) just 5 days ago, fearing the prices would go up even more moving forward. Paid 1500 EUR for it in total :/ Southern Europe FWIW.
Altman should be jailed for this. Single-handedly crashing consumer spending in an entire sector of the economy. At the very least for the reason that that was supposed to happen _after_ they had the AI in hand to supplant majority white collar labor, not before.
Yes? Reports are that OpenAI is buying unfinished memory kits which they have no capacity to complete. It appears that OpenAI is just buying them to remove them from the market and damage their competitors. In United States, that used to be considered against the law if we were actually enforcing such things.
Since COVID, this has been the norm for any industry that requires chips.
Operation handbook now dictates that you should have 3-4 years of all the ICs you'll need for production so you don't end up like the car manufacturers.
Yes, and I actually think it's a symptom of advanced societal decay that you think this is somehow an unreasonable proposition.
What OpenAI is doing will drive up prices for years, shredding consumer welfare, limiting competition and forcing marginally-profitable products off the market, and they're not even going to use the RAM. They're wrecking supply chains simply because they no longer have any technical advantage now that Google and Anthropic have caught up and passed them, and have to resort to dirty tricks like this and digital heroin Sora to try and justify their valuation. No functioning society would or should allow you to get away with that.
Frankly, much worse things than jail should happen to Altman for this kind of torching of the commons, and jail is the watered-down compromise position.
I'm aware that the US is changing, but in the past, we had an idea that you don't go to jail unless there was a specific crime that you could be charged with.
This "crime" would be written down somewhere in what we called a "law", that would state penalties, with "maximum" sentences.
And, to forestall your comments, one of our other traditions was that you applied these rules even to lying sons of bitches (which Altman is).
I'm pretty sure this clearly runs afoul of anticompetitive laws, no? Altman is intentionally sabotaging the global electronics supply chain using their existing market dominance to prevent competitors from being able to operate.
And, tangentially, I really don't know what world you lived in. The US has arrested civil rights leaders and overthrown countries and went through an entire era of McCarthyism to get here: where the US president is having investigations into his political enemies for what amounts to "disloyalty". It's basically a national given that cops plant evidence on black folk regularly.
Since when has America been this bastion of lawfulness?
I thought Apple would get around and improve their memory prices with time, I guess it's the opposite: all manufacturers are now becoming Apple given these raises.
They are not becoming Apple. They are updating the prices of their components to the underlying market costs. Framework lets you replace the memory modules.
Apple is a fashionable brand that commands a price premium. They can charge much higher prices and will charge the amount that will maximize their profits.
BMW charges to enable heated seats. They know their customers have money and will pay. Apple is the same.
Framework has to competitively price. They're being forced to update pricing to reflect the reality of supply and demand.
There's also this:
> Due to [Framework's] memory pricing said to be more competitive below market rates, they also adjusted their return policy to prevent scalpers from purchasing DIY Edition laptops with memory while then returning just the laptops. The DDR5 must be returned now with DIY laptop order returns.
Yikes, I hadn’t realized this was that big of a problem. The same exact G.skill z5 64Gb ram I bought 4 years ago is well on its way to being double the price. Does this have more to do with Crucial ending consumer product lines or tariffs?
And also because Korean companies apparently fear US retribution if they start producing DDR4. I don't feel like "OpenAI bought half the supply" tells the entire story when the companies that used to produce DDR4 with the left over machines no longer dare to do so. Probably the prices wouldn't spike as they're doing right now if the ones who used to produce the older RAM generations actually continued doing so.
What do you mean by this? From everything I can find points towards other companies winding down DDR4 production because of China's cheaper DDR4 production lines.
The toilet paper thing didn't really happen though because there is so much shit people can produce at a time and the demand never increased if you scaled it to a 2 weeks period. There was enough stock in warehouses that 3 days later every store had a full stock again and the prices never increased.
Did we live through the same pandemic? At least where I live, there was shortages for weeks, and scarce for months.
There was a real manufacturing shift that had to happen in the transition from commercial toilet paper to residential, which is made by totally different machines. The problem was real. It’s just that someone, seeing that real problem, triggered a panic buy that resulted in cleared shelves and a misallocation of the actual supply, making everything worse for everyone.
In the present case, OpenAI just took 40% of the world’s supply off the market. That is massive, and will have implications for RAM availability for many industries. As a result, every other company immediately bought up as much supply as they could.
Cars during Covid is probably the closer comparison, actually. A combined supply-drop followed by demand-shock resulting in skyrocketing prices and empty inventory.
> The toilet paper thing didn't really happen [...]
Yes, it did.
> [...] because there is so much shit people can produce at a time and the demand never increased if you scaled it to a 2 weeks period. There was enough stock in warehouses that 3 days later every store had a full stock again and the prices never increased.
No, there wasn't in lots of places, and demand for the kind of toilet paper that fits on home dispensers did increase (and demand for the kind of big rolls used exclusively in institutional settings decreased, and shifting between those two for manufacturing is not quick), and there were extended supply issues in many places. (This was certainly true where I lived, but I would expect it had lots of regional variance, because supply chains are regional, the share of workers that were moved home because of either the practicality of remote work or workplaces being shutdown varied regionally because of both policy and industry differences, and because the share of workplaces that use industrial style TP vs TP compatible with home style dispensers probably also varies considerably.)
The end of Crucial is a symptom, not a cause. Crucial is merely Micron's factory brand. Nothing is stopping OEMs like G.Skill or Kingston from buying DRAM chips from Micron and putting them on consumer RAM sticks.
Well, that's the theory at least. In practice it's more accurate to say that Micron had cut down their consumer allocation that not even their factory brand can get enough chips to survive.
AI companies will continue to buy up all the RAM so you and I have to pay the cost for it.
They will also eat up all the energy so you and I have to pay more for energy.
They will also then try and put you and I out of a job.
And if they fail to do so, they will then get your and my tax dollars to bail them out.
There should be real AI research and technology development, but the way it’s being done right now is heads the AI hyperscalers win, tails, all of us lose.
It’s being run as a massive scam against the rest of us.
I think maybe long-term the effect of Korean companies no longer daring to reuse old machines to produce DDR4 because of US retribution is the bigger cause of that.
Repeating this weird claim won't make it true. DDR4 isn't going to come back into fashion, even during a DRAM shortage. Demand for DDR4 can't increase meaningfully when no current-generation processors can use it, and older-generation processors aren't seeing any increase in production or sales. DDR4 is not a substitute good for the RAM that's in short supply.
In the consumer market it absolutely is. AMD is still releasing new AM4 processors, and these take DDR4 DIMMs. If anything, DDR4 is meaningfully challenged by PCIe gen5 storage, that can reach comparable bandwidth at a system-wide level (though of course not the same latency).
What is this estimation based on? I'd think once the bubble pops pricing would start to return to normal levels and the general consensus seems to think the bubble won't last that long.
I bought a couple of terabytes of RAM and now I feel like one of those crypto-whales haha. It's just sitting there in the corner. One was a lucky one, too, because I tried to negotiate a guy to sell me a system with less RAM but he wouldn't discount it much. Now it pays for most of the cost of the damn thing.
These spikes do happen. I remember one for hard drives after a storm. The surprising thing for me is how cheap a super-powerful Epyc is these days. But then you need to fill the 12 RAM slots and that becomes more costly. Funny times.
You don't NEED to fill the 12 ram slots. My personal 1U has an Epyc 9124 and only 4 of the 12 ram slots filled. I figured, ram will only get cheaper with time so I can fill the remaining 8 slots in the future. Turns out I was wrong, but regardless, the server runs fine on 4 sticks.
From what I've read, he's tied up RAM manufacturers through 2029. That's a lot of quartely earnings reports for many firms in the economy where they watch consumer spend come to a screeching halt.
They bought unfinished components and have no ability to finish them. They're now waste just sitting on shelves and by the time we could do this and get them into production lines, they'll be obsoletd by DDR6.
As with all Ponzi schemes OpenAI will eventually go bankrupt, yet it continues to receive money from the unwary. I wonder how the research division at Disney feels about what their bosses have done...
But it should happen earlier due what is happening with the RAM, as it sounds quite illegal, like anticompetitive hoarding, cornering the market, raising rivals' costs, consumer welfare harm, and so on.
There's an errant thing at the back of my mind, I can't help but wonder if this ram shortage could revive the ram dimm as a concept as so many manufacturers were adopting the soldered-ram approach. I'm sure though this won't come to pass
The price difference in terms of manufacturing cost is immaterial. But if people can't afford a machine with 32GB anymore then they're going to suffer one with 8GB knowing from the outset that it's not enough and then have a strong preference for the ability to upgrade it later when prices come back down or they get more money.
Late-stage capitalism in action. We have companies that are so insanely rich (despite losing equally insane amounts of money) that they can single-handedly corner worldwide markets for critical components in a brazen attempt to hurt the competition, and nobody will do a single thing about it.
Thank you for sharing this. Their point about the 128GB desktop mainboard being a bargain while their prices remain low rings true. I bought one a couple weeks ago because I've been wanting to build a beefy, efficient home server and I think this might be the last window of affordability for quite a while.
I upgraded my laptop from 32gb to 64gb (should have gotten 96gb) over the summer and I'm considering the same for the leftover 32gb - fear of not having spares in case of defects holds me back though.
I started thinking about it last spring, been slowly finding the ideal setup over time. Finally bit the bullet just like 5 days ago, fearing it's about to become worse rather than better, but it hurt as much anyway :/
What's wild is OpenAI doubling down on hyperscaling when it's obvious that the gains from pre-training are coming to an end. They seem determined to just go out in flames...
This is a "the horse might sing" situation for the whole market that focused on breakthrough-level results (AGI, ASI, or even just "not going off the rails after the third response").
The thing is, it seems like they are planning to force everyone else out of the market. Acquire all the RAM they can possibly get, leave none for the competition, pray to survive the entire mess.
It's the inevitable peak of the venture capital pipeline, just this time it isn't individual industries (e.g. taxis with Uber, hotels with AirBnB) getting squeezed out by unsustainable pricing - it's the economy at large that's suffering this time.
And it's high time for us as a society to put an end to this madness. End the AI VC economy before it ends our economy.
Perhaps we can call this type of maneuver, "The Sam Altman": Your expensive business's mid-term outlook not looking so good? Why not use all that cash/credit to corner the market in some commodity in order to cripple your perceived competition?
He's not the first one though. The crypto miners used to do the same (I distinctly 'member first GPUs, then HDDs, then ordinary RAM being squoze by yet another new shitcoin in less than a year), and Uber plus the food delivery apps are a masterclass in how to destroy competition with seemingly infinite cash.
> In 6 months you'll be able to get memory chips and GPUs for nothing.
I highly doubt that. Memory chip production takes years to scale up, which is partially a reason why the memory market (both RAM and solid-storage) is so susceptible to "pig cycles" - high prices incentivize new players to join the market (although less likely than decades ago, given just how much capital one needs and how complex the technology has gotten) and for established players to scale up their production, and then prices collapse due to oversupply.
For GPUs, the situation is even worse. During the GPU crypto mining craze, at least that was consumer GPUs so there indeed was an influx of cheap second hand gear once that market collapsed due to ASICs - but this time? These chips don't even have the hardware for rendering videos any more, so even if GPU OEMs would now get a ton of left over GPU chips they couldn't make general-purpose GPUs out of them any more.
Additionally, this assumption assumes that the large web of AI actors collapses in the next 6 months, which is even more unlikely - there's just too much actual cash floating around in the market.
This is a huge Hail Mary... IMO they'd be better served slowing down the training pipeline, becoming profitable now, hiring a bunch of scientists and figuring out the next AI technology.
Oh, both Uber and AirBnB did get dinged by the courts - but it took them years and the damage was already done, on top of that the fines were laughable.
We need the corporate death penalty aka forced dissolution for egregious cases of misbehavior, we need easier ways to pierce the corporate veil (and I'm more and more inclined to actually support the death penalty here as well, despite the potential for abuse), we need corporate fines to all be measured % of gross income, at least double the profit margin.
It seems the only thing that could break this is the off chance that the SCOTUS rules that the tariffs are illegal and/or Congress strips the Presidency of the power they gave it in utters incompetence many decades ago.
I’m thinking with sufficient pressure by all tech interested people it could become an issue in the midterms and even force Trump to sign agreements not to tariff RAM by Korean producers who could ramp up production.
Frankly, I wouldn’t even be surprised if we start seeing RAM smuggling. In not sure of drug prices, but would smuggling RAM not be at least just as profitable, especially without the high profile and risk?
This is the fault of manufacturers fixing supply, especially in the case of micron, one of only 3 memory chip manufacturers, deciding to flip the bird to the non-AI consumer market.
> Lenovo has begun notifying clients of coming price hikes, with adjustments set to take effect in early 2026.. Dell is expected to raise prices by at least 15-20%, with the increase potentially taking effect as soon as mid-December.. Dell COO Jeff Clarke warned that he’s “never seen memory-chip costs rise this fast,” .. Lenovo [cited] two key factors: an intensifying memory shortage and the rapid integration of AI technologies.. TrendForce has downgraded its 2026 notebook shipment forecast from an initial 1.7% YoY growth to a 2.4% YoY decline.
https://hanchouhsu.substack.com/p/overview-of-the-memory-mar...
> The full-year price increase for Samsung’s storage products supplied to Apple in 2026 has been finalized, with DRAM prices rising by 53% and NAND prices rising by 52%. Earlier rumors suggesting an 80% full-year increase for DRAM were inaccurate.. Apple negotiated the prices down to the aforementioned levels and signed long-term agreements (LTAs).. Kioxia also signed a similar agreement with Apple, with price increases consistent with Samsung’s.
The real test will be what they do with upcoming products.
Operation handbook now dictates that you should have 3-4 years of all the ICs you'll need for production so you don't end up like the car manufacturers.
What OpenAI is doing will drive up prices for years, shredding consumer welfare, limiting competition and forcing marginally-profitable products off the market, and they're not even going to use the RAM. They're wrecking supply chains simply because they no longer have any technical advantage now that Google and Anthropic have caught up and passed them, and have to resort to dirty tricks like this and digital heroin Sora to try and justify their valuation. No functioning society would or should allow you to get away with that.
Frankly, much worse things than jail should happen to Altman for this kind of torching of the commons, and jail is the watered-down compromise position.
This "crime" would be written down somewhere in what we called a "law", that would state penalties, with "maximum" sentences.
And, to forestall your comments, one of our other traditions was that you applied these rules even to lying sons of bitches (which Altman is).
Sorry to be old fashioned here.
And, tangentially, I really don't know what world you lived in. The US has arrested civil rights leaders and overthrown countries and went through an entire era of McCarthyism to get here: where the US president is having investigations into his political enemies for what amounts to "disloyalty". It's basically a national given that cops plant evidence on black folk regularly.
Since when has America been this bastion of lawfulness?
I wonder what Apple's next move will be :-)
EDIT: Spelling
Apple is a fashionable brand that commands a price premium. They can charge much higher prices and will charge the amount that will maximize their profits.
BMW charges to enable heated seats. They know their customers have money and will pay. Apple is the same.
Framework has to competitively price. They're being forced to update pricing to reflect the reality of supply and demand.
There's also this:
> Due to [Framework's] memory pricing said to be more competitive below market rates, they also adjusted their return policy to prevent scalpers from purchasing DIY Edition laptops with memory while then returning just the laptops. The DDR5 must be returned now with DIY laptop order returns.
They might pull it off , but hell off a way to bet the economy dominos all on black.
There was a real manufacturing shift that had to happen in the transition from commercial toilet paper to residential, which is made by totally different machines. The problem was real. It’s just that someone, seeing that real problem, triggered a panic buy that resulted in cleared shelves and a misallocation of the actual supply, making everything worse for everyone.
In the present case, OpenAI just took 40% of the world’s supply off the market. That is massive, and will have implications for RAM availability for many industries. As a result, every other company immediately bought up as much supply as they could.
Cars during Covid is probably the closer comparison, actually. A combined supply-drop followed by demand-shock resulting in skyrocketing prices and empty inventory.
Yes, it did.
> [...] because there is so much shit people can produce at a time and the demand never increased if you scaled it to a 2 weeks period. There was enough stock in warehouses that 3 days later every store had a full stock again and the prices never increased.
No, there wasn't in lots of places, and demand for the kind of toilet paper that fits on home dispensers did increase (and demand for the kind of big rolls used exclusively in institutional settings decreased, and shifting between those two for manufacturing is not quick), and there were extended supply issues in many places. (This was certainly true where I lived, but I would expect it had lots of regional variance, because supply chains are regional, the share of workers that were moved home because of either the practicality of remote work or workplaces being shutdown varied regionally because of both policy and industry differences, and because the share of workplaces that use industrial style TP vs TP compatible with home style dispensers probably also varies considerably.)
It absolutely happened. I was there, I saw it happen. Maybe it didn't happen in your area, but others weren't so lucky.
Well, that's the theory at least. In practice it's more accurate to say that Micron had cut down their consumer allocation that not even their factory brand can get enough chips to survive.
The RAM I bought last year has more than tripled. 2x32 DDR5 kits, $240/kit, now $820.
Prices are not expected to recover until 2028.
AI companies will continue to buy up all the RAM so you and I have to pay the cost for it.
They will also eat up all the energy so you and I have to pay more for energy.
They will also then try and put you and I out of a job.
And if they fail to do so, they will then get your and my tax dollars to bail them out.
There should be real AI research and technology development, but the way it’s being done right now is heads the AI hyperscalers win, tails, all of us lose.
It’s being run as a massive scam against the rest of us.
FOMO and Number goes up is the primary issue both with AI and most compute today.
There's so many made up numbers these days that does zero productive work, like FPS, refresh rates, 4k, 8k, 16k.
Bloat is everywhere.
https://frame.work/blog/updates-on-memory-pricing-and-naviga...
These spikes do happen. I remember one for hard drives after a storm. The surprising thing for me is how cheap a super-powerful Epyc is these days. But then you need to fill the 12 RAM slots and that becomes more costly. Funny times.
Maybe this won't last that long given the RAM shortage is apparently a corner attempt by Sam Altman.
But it should happen earlier due what is happening with the RAM, as it sounds quite illegal, like anticompetitive hoarding, cornering the market, raising rivals' costs, consumer welfare harm, and so on.
Except its caused by good old bubble capitalism.
This memory situation has me pondering putting it all up on ebay
Or just cash out, that's always great.
This is a "the horse might sing" situation for the whole market that focused on breakthrough-level results (AGI, ASI, or even just "not going off the rails after the third response").
It's the inevitable peak of the venture capital pipeline, just this time it isn't individual industries (e.g. taxis with Uber, hotels with AirBnB) getting squeezed out by unsustainable pricing - it's the economy at large that's suffering this time.
And it's high time for us as a society to put an end to this madness. End the AI VC economy before it ends our economy.
There's a few historical examples here....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornering_the_market
Of course I'm joking, there are LLMs to check these things now.
I highly doubt that. Memory chip production takes years to scale up, which is partially a reason why the memory market (both RAM and solid-storage) is so susceptible to "pig cycles" - high prices incentivize new players to join the market (although less likely than decades ago, given just how much capital one needs and how complex the technology has gotten) and for established players to scale up their production, and then prices collapse due to oversupply.
For GPUs, the situation is even worse. During the GPU crypto mining craze, at least that was consumer GPUs so there indeed was an influx of cheap second hand gear once that market collapsed due to ASICs - but this time? These chips don't even have the hardware for rendering videos any more, so even if GPU OEMs would now get a ton of left over GPU chips they couldn't make general-purpose GPUs out of them any more.
Additionally, this assumption assumes that the large web of AI actors collapses in the next 6 months, which is even more unlikely - there's just too much actual cash floating around in the market.
We need the corporate death penalty aka forced dissolution for egregious cases of misbehavior, we need easier ways to pierce the corporate veil (and I'm more and more inclined to actually support the death penalty here as well, despite the potential for abuse), we need corporate fines to all be measured % of gross income, at least double the profit margin.
And we need all of that fast.
I’m thinking with sufficient pressure by all tech interested people it could become an issue in the midterms and even force Trump to sign agreements not to tariff RAM by Korean producers who could ramp up production.
Frankly, I wouldn’t even be surprised if we start seeing RAM smuggling. In not sure of drug prices, but would smuggling RAM not be at least just as profitable, especially without the high profile and risk?
Hey! … hey, you! You want to have some fun?