On one hand I see runaway popularity - 247K GitHub stars. 13,700 community skills. - I read about Chinese cloud provider forks. Stock market rally. Hosting providers offering managed OpenClaw hosting, same tier as WordPress.
But when I look at OpenClaw hub - the most-downloaded skill has 35K installs - Highest-rated skill: 132 stars
247K stars vs 35K installs looks like huge gap for me.
Other observations - Popular skills are pedestrian connectors (Gmail, search, Obsidian, Home Assistant) — things a dozen other tools already do - a lot of stock/trade skills, many in Chinese - I get charged per API call (I use Claude) on top of my monthly subscription
I read news about - "lobster trade", where stock rallies on OpenClaw-related announcements - Government subsidy: Shenzhen offering up to $1.4M grants for OpenClaw-based one-person companies, Wuxi $730K - company stock rallying in China when a company announces OpenClaw
I wanted to use OpenClaw in conjunciton with my robotics startup PMF search. I checked OpenClawRobotics - a community site for applying OpenClaw to robotics - and it appears to be abandoned. The signup form doesn't work.
Claude tells me - managed OpenClaw hosting now available is the telling signal. Infrastructure providers commoditize projects when novelty has passed and recurring revenue becomes the play. Late-cycle behavior, not early-cycle. - "Lobster trade" is a stock market phenomenon, not product adoption.
Don't get me wrong, I love the OpenClaw project. But I can't help noticing this and scratching my head.
What do you think?
None of these projects are very good, but infra providers are happy to sell shovels to the hype rush.
Almost no-one is making money out of OpenClaw other than the hosting providers.
That is why the OpenClaw hype is dying. It's just a way for people to throw their money away on tokens and the model providers extracting money from that.
There is no use case for it other than wasting tokens.