Microsoft laying off 10% of their workforce, 15%, 20%, 30%? Google laying off 10%, 15%, 20%, or more?
HN readers like to use the cope of "it's just pandemic over-hiring" — when do you think that explanation will no longer hold?
When will you say: "Now it has nothing to do with Covid-era over-hiring; the industry has fundamentally changed."
If this happens and a significant number of white-collar jobs are eliminated, who would buy things to keep the economy funded?
To your actual point, these companies are making insane amounts of money and many are posting their best quarters yet while doing these layoffs. I’m not concerned that their business will suffer. Just the rest of us rank and file as they squeeze more blood from a stone with a narrative that Wall Street finds appealing.
For most software companies, operating expenses are mostly wages. So, cutting costs means reducing headcount, which is likely especially true in lower-wage regions. If an engineer costs $4K/month, adding $1K/month in token costs increases employment cost by 25%. If an engineer costs $2K/month, the same $1K raises costs by only 5%.
So, I'd argue that everyone should be worried at least to some degree until the industry finds a new equilibrium.